Leaders at the Bell with Jim Lebenthal, Chief Market Strategist Cerity Partners, Dec 03, 2025

Jim Lebenthal, Chief Market Strategist at Cerity Partners, expresses optimism about US equity markets heading into year-end and 2026, citing solid fundamentals including growing corporate earnings, a resilient economy, and continued Federal Reserve accommodation. With the Fed poised to cut rates again and ending quantitative tightening, Lebenthal anticipates increased market liquidity. He projects earnings growth of 15 percent for the S&P 500 next year, which could support high single-digit returns even if valuations moderate from current levels around 22.5 times forward earnings. He also highlights the expected stimulative impact of the 2026 budget bill on both corporations and consumers as an additional tailwind.

Lebenthal identifies two primary near-term risks emanating from the Supreme Court: potential invalidation of President Trump's tariff implementation under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and a possible ruling allowing presidential removal of Federal Reserve governors, which could threaten central bank independence. Both issues could generate first-quarter volatility. On cryptocurrencies, Cerity Partners remains cautious despite daily evaluation of the space. Lebenthal notes that Bitcoin has historically correlated too closely with the Nasdaq and failed to act as the hedge many anticipated, behaving instead as a risk-on asset without a clear valuation framework comparable to traditional equities.