Leaders at the Bell with Alberto Bernal, Chief Strategist at XP Investimentos, Jul 9, 2026

Alberto Bernal, Chief Strategist at XP Investimentos, joined Leaders at the Bell from the NYSE floor to discuss key market dynamics as geopolitical tensions and monetary policy considerations shape investor outlooks. Despite the dollar's persistent strength, Bernal maintained his conviction that the euro will eventually reach 1.20, arguing that the greenback remains overvalued on a real basis and is nearing the end of a decade-long appreciation cycle similar to the 2001 peak. He expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady rather than hike, particularly if tensions with Iran ease and oil prices decline to around $65 per barrel, which would alleviate inflationary pressures while employment growth remains modest at roughly 52,000 new jobs monthly for an economy employing 169 million people.

Bernal addressed the Iranian crisis and its impact on oil markets, noting that despite this being potentially the largest supply disruption in history—affecting 20 million barrels versus 3 million during the Ukraine-Russia conflict—crude prices never exceeded the $80 range. He attributed this muted response to global oversupply conditions and China's strategic release of petroleum reserves, while highlighting that the United States has become the world's largest oil exporter at over 6 million barrels daily. On European markets, Bernal sees compelling value with stocks trading approximately 30 percent cheaper than US equities on a relative basis, far beyond historical discounts, and believes the region is undergoing a necessary rethinking of its economic model, particularly Germany's reversal on nuclear energy.

Regarding fixed income, Bernal continues accumulating 10-year Treasuries at current 4.50 percent levels, arguing that if oil returns to $65, yields should normalize around 4.10 percent based on historical correlations. He dismissed comparisons between recent private credit difficulties and the 2008 financial crisis, emphasizing that private credit instruments lack the leverage that characterized collateralized debt obligations and involve sophisticated professional investors who understand restructuring risks. On digital assets, Bernal disclosed holding bitcoin for his children's accounts following advice from a Stanford mathematics PhD, acknowledging extreme volatility but noting that 99.9 percent of bitcoin's total supply has already been created, establishing fundamental scarcity dynamics.