Leaders at the Bell with Mark Newton, Partner, Head of Technical Analysis at FundStrat, Oct 16, 2025

Mark Newton, Partner and Head of Technical Analysis at FundStrat, offers a measured outlook for equity markets heading into year end, projecting the S&P 500 could reach 7,000 despite anticipating a November correction. While technology stocks have surged, Newton points to concerning breadth divergence, with the equal-weighted S&P unchanged since July and record merger and acquisition activity suggesting late-cycle positioning. He notes speculation emerging in metals, Bitcoin miners, and quantum stocks, though sentiment remains subdued enough to support further gains. Newton advocates buying dips expected around the 6,800 level in late October, anticipating a strong year-end rally following mid-November weakness.

On fixed income and commodities, Newton views the ten-year treasury yield approaching 4% as psychologically significant but temporary, driven partly by government shutdown concerns rather than fundamental economic weakness. He expects yields to stabilize around 3.90% before bouncing into year end. For crude oil, Newton delivers a striking forecast of potential decline into the low fifties or even forties by early 2026, citing sustained US production and Saudi strategic response, with February presenting a buying opportunity. In cryptocurrencies, he maintains a $130,000-$135,000 Bitcoin target but increasingly favors Ethereum and altcoins, warning that historical four-year cycles suggest potential cryptocurrency weakness in 2026 following three consecutive bull years.