Leaders at the Bell with Kenny Polcari, SlateStone, March 25, 2026

Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth and veteran floor trader with four decades at the New York Stock Exchange, shares his constructive outlook for US markets despite recent turbulence stemming from geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. While acknowledging the short-term chaos created by the Iran conflict, Polcari emphasizes that geopolitical events historically do not price stocks over the long term. He notes encouraging signs from diplomatic negotiations and believes the market could reclaim recent losses once tensions subside. The strategist highlights continued economic strength, pointing to PMI readings that remain in expansion territory and unemployment holding at 4.4 percent, which he considers full employment. He draws comparisons to the prior period of elevated inflation, noting the economy remained resilient even when inflation reached nine and a half percent.

Regarding employment concerns ahead of the April nonfarm payroll report, Polcari does not anticipate companies using the current environment as justification for significant layoffs, citing the economy's fundamental robustness. On the private credit issue gaining attention across financial media, he acknowledges some concern but argues most retail investors have limited exposure, suggesting any market impact would likely create temporary mispricings rather than a systemic crisis comparable to 2008. Looking at fixed income markets, Polcari expresses caution about the Federal Reserve continuing rate cuts given stable labor markets and economic conditions, warning that overstimulation could risk reigniting inflation. He identifies key technical levels to monitor on the ten-year and thirty-year Treasury yields while maintaining his overall bullish stance on US equities for 2026.