Leaders at the Bell with Jeff Hirsch, Stock Trading Almanac, March 23, 2026

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO of Hirsch Holdings and editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, joined Leaders at the Bell remotely to discuss market volatility on March 23, 2026, a day marked by dramatic intraday swings following geopolitical developments. Hirsch noted the historic nature of the session, pointing out that during Trump presidency years a pattern has emerged showing first-quarter turbulence followed by dealmaking and subsequent rallies. He shared a seasonal chart revealing a consistent March-April bottom across Trump's administration years, suggesting the current volatility may represent another "spring Trump bottom" as the administration pivots from aggressive posturing toward negotiation. With the VIX surging above 30 and key technical support levels approaching in the 45,000 to 46,500 range, Hirsch advised retail investors to avoid reactive trading based on headlines.

Looking at the broader midterm election year pattern, Hirsch emphasized that the second and third quarters historically represent weak periods for equities, with the "sell in May" seasonal pattern particularly pronounced. However, he maintained a moderately bullish base case for 2026, forecasting eight to twelve percent gains with 70 percent probability, citing historical data showing second midterm years—when presidents focus on cementing their legacy—tend to outperform typical midterm cycles. On commodities and alternatives, Hirsch recommended caution, stating gold appears to have topped after its seasonal run while Bitcoin offers only tactical trading opportunities in midterm years. He highlighted weekly initial jobless claims as the most reliable employment indicator, noting current readings remain stable and suggesting the labor market poses minimal concern absent prolonged geopolitical disruption.